Airbus estimates the industry must find 2.44 million new aviation workers by 2045, including 660,000 pilots, 730,000 maintenance technicians and 1.05 million cabin crew. The figure comes from the manufacturer's Global Services Forecast, released on October 14, 2026, and assumes annual passenger numbers double to 10 billion over two decades.

The fleet underpinning that labour demand is large: 45,550 aircraft in service by 2045, roughly double today's count. The forecast covers passenger jets above 100 seats and freighters carrying more than 22,000 pounds, from all manufacturers rather than Airbus operators alone.

"As the global fleet doubles to more than 45,550 aircraft by 2045, we need to get ready," said Cristina Aguilar Grieder, Airbus Senior Vice President of Customer Services for Commercial Aircraft.

What does the hiring math mean in practice?

A requirement of 660,000 pilots over twenty years works out to roughly 33,000 new flightcrew annually, worldwide. Add the technician and cabin crew figures and the industry must recruit and train some 122,000 people each year on average. That is recruitment; it does not account for attrition replacing today's workforce.

Airbus frames the answer in money. It expects the aviation training market to reach $17 billion annually by 2045. That is the price of the pipeline, in the manufacturer's own arithmetic.

How big is the services prize?

The workforce numbers sit inside a broader forecast in which annual aviation services spending doubles to more than $420 billion by 2045, an average growth rate of 3.8% a year. Maintenance takes the clear majority of that money.

Airbus breaks the $420 billion down as follows:

• $217 billion a year for engine and component work on parts removed from aircraft, driven by a larger and older fleet requiring more shop visits, repairs and replacement parts
• $104 billion for maintenance support, including parts inventories and engineering services
• $36 billion for aircraft inspections and maintenance checks
• $27 billion for digital services and connectivity, the fastest-growing segment at 5.3% a year
• $21 billion for cabin modifications and other upgrades as airlines refurbish older aircraft and install newer technology

The digital segment is the notable outlier. Everything else grows with fleet size; predictive maintenance tools, delay reduction and passenger connectivity grow faster, at 5.3% against the market's 3.8% average.

Where will the money and the workers go?

Airbus expects Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, North America and China to remain the largest aviation services markets. Growth tells a different story. Asia, including China and South Asia, is forecast to expand fastest of all regions.

That split carries consequences for MRO capacity and training infrastructure. The mature regions hold the installed base; the growth regions will need the new hangars, classrooms and simulators that a doubling fleet implies.

Forecast versus fact

These are projections, not orders. The 2045 figures rest on assumptions about traffic doubling to 10 billion passengers a year and a fleet reaching 45,550 aircraft — outcomes that have shifted with past demand shocks. The verifiable data point is the present: airlines already report pilot and technician shortfalls, and Airbus has put a number on what closing them costs.

The forecast's practical test will arrive well before 2045. If the training market is to reach $17 billion a year, investment in that capacity has to begin this decade — and the manufacturer supplying both the aircraft and much of the aftermarket analysis has an evident interest in the answer.