Airlines will face shortages of new aircraft until at least 2030, aviation analytics firm Cirium said in its annual fleet forecast released on October 13, 2026. Engine availability, supplier bottlenecks and certification delays will constrain production throughout the remainder of the decade, with manufacturers unable to meet carrier demand.

Cirium expects about 43,000 deliveries of new commercial passenger and cargo aircraft between 2026 and 2045, worth $3.2 trillion at 2026 prices. The jets and turboprops would serve both fleet expansion and the replacement of aging aircraft.

"Long-term aircraft demand remains strong, but the pace of growth increasingly depends on the industry's ability to deliver," said Stephen Burnside, Global Head of Cirium Ascend Consultancy.

What does the shortage change for airlines?

The shortfall is already measurable. The International Air Transport Association (IATA, the industry's trade body) said in June 2026 that airlines were short of more than 5,000 fuel-efficient aircraft they had expected to receive by now.

The order backlog exceeded 18,000 aircraft, IATA reported, and the average fleet age reached a record 15.2 years. The association estimated that supply chain failures cost airlines at least $11 billion in 2025, with higher fuel prices adding to the burden.

With fewer replacements available, carriers are keeping older aircraft flying longer. That means higher maintenance spending and higher lease rates, and forgone fuel savings from newer, more efficient models.

IATA also flagged engine durability issues, spare-parts shortages and limited maintenance capacity as operational disruptions. It has urged manufacturers to provide earlier warnings of delays and to give airlines more options for obtaining approved parts and repairs.

How large will the fleet grow despite the constraints?

Cirium expects the global passenger fleet to exceed 50,000 aircraft by 2045. Higher fuel costs, geopolitical disruption and trade uncertainty could alter airlines' expansion plans, but the forecast still points to sustained demand for new airplanes, the company said.

The forecast implies that fleet growth through the end of the decade will depend less on order books — already swollen beyond 18,000 units — and more on whether manufacturers can clear engine, supplier and certification bottlenecks before 2030.