Cirium expects the world's airlines to take delivery of nearly 750 new-build freighters over the next 20 years, a forecast that signals sustained confidence in dedicated cargo capacity even as belly-hold space recovers across long-haul passenger networks.

The projection, published by the aviation data and analytics firm, frames a two-decade demand curve that Boeing and Airbus — the only builders of factory freighters at scale — will compete to serve. Boeing has long dominated the dedicated freighter market with its 767F, 777F and, in converted form, the 737 and 767 programs, while Airbus re-entered the segment with the A330-200F before pivoting to the A350F, its first new-build widebody freighter in years.

What does 750 freighters mean for capacity?

A fleet addition of that size translates into a significant expansion of main-deck lift. If deliveries spread evenly across the 20-year window, the industry would need roughly 35 to 40 new freighters per year — a pace that would test both manufacturers' production lines and the conversion yards that supply a parallel stream of converted freighters.

Cirium's number covers new-build aircraft specifically, meaning the forecast sits on top of whatever demand emerges for passenger-to-freighter conversions, which have carried much of the cargo capacity growth since 2020.

Who builds them, and who flies them?

Factory freighter demand historically concentrates among a handful of operator groups: integrators such as FedEx and UPS, express and e-commerce carriers, and combination carriers like Cathay Pacific, Lufthansa and Korean Air Cargo that run dedicated freighter fleets alongside passenger bellies.

The forecast period also runs through a regulatory and emissions transition. New CO2 standards and tightening noise rules in key markets will shape which airframes remain viable freighter platforms late in the window, and both OEMs have tied their newest freighter offerings to fuel-burn claims that operators will weigh against fleet-age economics.

How solid is the demand case?

Freighter forecasts rest on cargo traffic growth, trade volumes and the belly-capacity balance — variables that have swung sharply since the pandemic. Air cargo rates spiked in 2021-2022, fell back through 2023, and firmed again on e-commerce flows out of Asia, a volatility that makes 20-year projections as much a statement about structural trends as about year-to-year cycles.

Cirium's near-750 figure positions dedicated freighters as a durable part of the global fleet rather than a pandemic artifact, implying operators expect main-deck capacity to keep earning its keep against belly competition.

The next test of that thesis comes in the order books: whether the delivery schedules of the A350F, the 777-8F and the 767F keep pace with the roughly 35-per-year intake the forecast implies.